What autonomous transport could mean for public budgets
Benjamin MüllerBenjaminMüller
2 min
Current modelling assumes a scenario in which autonomous vehicles make up roughly three quarters of the public transport fleet by the mid-2040s.ZF Friedrichshafen
Autonomous buses have the potential to shift the financial foundations of public transport. Lower operating costs and new fleet concepts could reduce the level of public funding required over the coming decades.
Germany’s public transport system is under growing financial
pressure. Operating costs have risen sharply in recent years, while ticket
revenues have fallen — a trend accelerated by pandemic disruption and the
introduction of the nationwide Deutschlandticket (a nationwide flat-rate
monthly public transport pass). Against this backdrop, the
prospect of large-scale autonomous operation is drawing attention as a
possible lever to ease pressure on public budgets. The core argument: if
driverless vehicles take over a substantial share of the fleet, staffing costs
and parts of the vehicle architecture could be significantly reduced.
How a driverless fleet could alter the cost structure of
public transport
Current modelling assumes a scenario in which autonomous
vehicles make up roughly three quarters of the public transport fleet by the
mid-2040s. Reaching this level would require around 85,300 autonomous vehicles,
spanning high-capacity buses for major routes, smaller shuttles for local
services and robotaxis for flexible point-to-point
travel. The investment needed to build such a fleet is estimated in the
mid-single-digit billions — sizeable, but modest compared with the long-term
operating costs of manual services.
The expected savings derive mainly from labour. Once
staffing is removed from daily operations, per-kilometre subsidies could fall
dramatically, especially for routes with high frequency or long operating
hours. Additional efficiencies come from redesigned vehicles: smaller
autonomous shuttles and robotaxis can be built without mirrors, steering wheels
or pedals, lowering manufacturing and maintenance requirements. Several pilot projects in Germany are already testing such
concepts, and the regulatory framework for fully
autonomous operation is now in place. Holon, for instance, recently
received nationwide approval to run its electric “Holon urban” shuttle in test
operations.
Mobility + AI 2026: Trust, Technology and Regulation
14–15 April 2026, Mobility Innovation Campus, Technical University
of Munich and IABG, Ottobrunn, Munich.
The conference will bring together global experts from OEMs,
technical service providers, insurers, technology providers and regulatory
bodies.
The focus: Coordinating validation and regulation in the AI age of
software-defined vehicles so that business cases in Europe can now be
implemented quickly.
Key takeaways:
- AI accelerates the path to automated driving functions from L2+
to L4.
- Robotaxis and autonomous logistics systems are scalable in real
environments.
- New methods for validation and digital twins secure AI
systems.
- Safety, cybersecurity and regulation will form the basis of
every vehicle architecture.
- SDV, AI engineering and OTA updates will define the future of
vehicle development.
- Trust is built through HMI, UX and transparent communication of
autonomous systems.
Demonstrations on the certified test site and in the car park
convey expert knowledge for engineering and testing. Confirmed keynote speakers include: Richard Damm (KBA), Dr Xavier
Valero González (DEKRA), Thomas Quernheim (TÜV Rheinland), Dr René S. Hosse
(MOIA), Ernst Stoeckl-Pukall (BMWi), Marco Schuldt (BMWi), Dr Frederik Zohm
(MAN Bus & Truck Development Board), Dr Christian Sahr (Allianz Centre for
Technology) and Intakhab Khan (Automotive Artificial Intelligence GmbH), as
well as thought leaders from Audi, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and other international
OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers.
Public transport in Germany is coordinated by the 16 federal
states, supported by federal “regionalisation funds”, which currently total
€11.56 billion. Despite this, transport operators report significant funding
gaps. Before the pandemic, they covered around three quarters of operating
costs through ticket sales; today, that ratio has almost reversed, with roughly
70 per cent now financed through public money. The Deutschlandticket alone
requires an additional €3 billion annually in compensation.
In this context, the potential impact of autonomous
operation is notable. If the share of driverless vehicles rises substantially,
public subsidies could fall back below 60 per cent of operating costs, reducing
the financial strain on governments without cutting services. While commercial
approval for fully autonomous buses is still pending, the underlying economics
suggest that automation could become a key element in stabilising long-term
funding — especially as mobility demand continues to rise.
